Because the underlying theories behind IPR have yet to be demonstrated and validated on a large scale, research is necessary to verify the viability of the approach. This can be summed up by the following quote:

“It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.” 

RICHARD FEYNMAN

This is important because there are usually concerns raised when undertaking any large-scale project. The primary criticisms tend to fall within the following categories:

1. It will be expensive
2. It may have undesirable side-effects
3. It may not prove to be effective
4. If it is effective at solving a problem, it may just “treat the symptoms” and mask the root cause
5. The associated opportunity cost of implementation precludes more effective measures from being pursued

The concerns listed above are valid, and need to be addressed early in the development cycle. Concerns 1 and 5 are similar and represent financial decisions that need to be made, no matter what solution is proposed for the problem. The other three (2,3 and 4) are concerned with technical details of the solution – these are some of the issues that will be examined during the proposed test campaign.

Two parallel paths for verifying the utility of IPR are under development:

  1. Demonstration through controlled experiments – field research
  2. Evaluation of large-scale impact through climate model simulations

These are described separately below.

Demonstration Tests

The purpose of field research is meant to provide answers to the following questions associated with an IPR project:

  1. How effective are intensively irrigated tree plantations at atmospheric moisture enhancement, thus contributing to increased probabilities of precipitation?

  2. How can increases to local precipitation be reliably attributed to moisture contributions from the plantation?

  3. Can the atmospheric moisture generated from a plantation increase precipitation within a predictable area?

  4. How do local conditions effect the preferred locations for these plantations?

Table 1 lists the field research currently proposed as part of the test campaign, along with the plan maturity.

Table 1: Field research to provide physical evidence and validation

Table 1: Field research to provide physical evidence and validation

These projects are listed in order of complexity, and expected cost. Most are meant to be performed in sequence, building off the results and insights from the previous projects.

Validation test at waste-water treatment plantation: This project has been coordinated with the management at the Missoula waste-water treatment facility.

Overhead view of the waste-water treatment facility in Missoula Montana

Overhead view of the waste-water treatment facility in Missoula Montana

The goal for this research project is to demonstrate the ability to observe and characterize the moisture field generated by an intensively irrigated tree plantation. The main results expected from this research are:

  • An understanding of the general behavior of the flow field associated with moisture generated from the wastewater plantation (i.e. does it form a plume, a cloud, disperse, etc.)

  • A demonstration of how well the AMOS measurement system can observe atmospheric moisture fields at the scale of the plantation (~150 acres)

Proof of Concept IPR plantation: This proposed demonstration project requires available land for a tree plantation, waste-water for irrigation, and favorable local geography. Several suitable locations have been identified, however agreements and arrangements will need to be made with the local facility managers and authorities. This project will provide:

  • Insight into development of a plantation (becoming operational within three years)

  • A better understanding of how effects from local weather and physical geography on the atmospheric flow field can be inferred from the data

Mangrove IPR source demonstration: This project does not fit directly in the sequence of the other projects, but explores the possibility of using mangrove trees at the sea coast for IPR instead of an irrigated plantation. Some species of mangroves are able to make use of water directly from the ocean. This would provide another water source in regions that support the growth of mangroves.

Full-scale IPR demonstration project: After successfully developing the observation and analysis capabilities, along with answering the four questions listed at the top of this section, a full IPR demonstration project will follow. Details about this project and a potential location in Southern California can be found in the original IPR article.

This list of projects represents our current plan to develop an operational IPR project. This is subject to change based on research results, opportunities, and new insights. It is meant to provide more of a “roadmap” towards actual implementation of IPR solutions on a large-scale, by systematically building confidence in our ability to achieve the desired results.

Climate Simulations

Simulations using climate models are becoming standard in the scientific community for weather forecasting, and for analyzing the regional and global effects of changes to the environment. For our purposes, simulation can provide a better understanding of how an IPR project will impact the greater surrounding region. Table 2 contains a few proposed simulation analyses to characterize the effects of IPR at the regional level.

Table 2: Large-scale simulations using climate models

Table 2: Large-scale simulations using climate models

Each simulation will help examine different effects IPR will have on the regional climate and environment. These simulations build upon models used for previous research, which provide a baseline model to start from and to compare results against.

Validation simulation model for Biotic Pump effect: To understand the mechanics behind the effects the “Biotic Pump” appears to create, and provide more theoretical rigor to the discussions on this theory, a computer model will be developed to simulate the fundamental atmospheric dynamics and effects. These include:

  • The influence of evapotranspiration (ET) at low altitude on air “parcel” buoyancy

  • The strength of sensible heating vs. relative humidity in driving vertical atmospheric flows

  • The local dynamics associated with condensation at altitude – where does the energy go (e.g. local atmospheric heating, Kinetic Energy transfer, etc.)?

  • How do these internal dynamics effect surface winds and conditions, especially those that drive moisture further inland potentially increasing regional precipitation?

The goal will be to determine how strong these effects are in the absence of physical forcing from orographic features, prevailing winds, or parameterized boundary conditions based on empirical data. This “de-couples” inputs not related to the study, and constrains the solution space as much as possible to reflect the “inner workings” and climatic influence of any biotic pump effect.

PR augmentation of existing model: Models have already been developed that correspond with two potential large-scale afforestation projects in desert regions. These models will be modified to include the additional features from IPR, and assessed for positive impacts on the results from the original studies. This is intended to assess what additional effects on local weather patterns IPR is expected to cause, and how it can help transform the environment of a large region.

Sustainability analysis: This analysis will show how the regional climate responds to changes in the environment. Previous studies have indicated that in certain regions of the world, increased vegetation cover over a large region correlates with a corresponding increase in regional rainfall. For a project to be scaled up so as to impact a large region at a reasonable cost, it is important to create a self-sustaining, self-propagating ecosystem. The ultimate goal is to minimize, or even eliminate the need for irrigation to sustain the modified environment.

Optimization analysis: Once the viability of IPR has been established, selection of a good location for a project will be necessary. Here, simulation is very useful for determining where the best location in a region (given constraints of available land, irrigation resources, etc.) will be. Many factors may be included in this trade study – water yield, cost, environmental changes expected, etc. This provides an approach to determine the “best value” solution; i.e. how to get the most “bang for the buck”.

Purpose of Our Research

These tests and simulations are important for building confidence that an IPR project will work, and will be effective in the region it is located. IPR represents an innovative approach to addressing multiple issues, so validation of the concept has far reaching implications.

Ongoing inter-related research topics in the scientific community are listed here. They each represent separate facets of IPR and environmental transformation, and contribute to the concept as a whole.  Where possible, we intend to coordinate with research efforts in any topic related to IPR.